关键词: 资本账户开放, 经济增长, 组合门槛, 局部开放

Abstract: It is agreed that there are threshold effects of capital account opening on promoting domestic economic growth. However, the existing research can only estimate the threshold value of a single variable,which not only ignores the possibility of the combination threshold of multiple variables, but also brings the inherent logical contradiction of analysis. In view of this, the paper first proposes the method of multivariate combination threshold model, and then uses the data of 114 countries (regions) in 1996-2015 to investigate the international experience of capital account opening to promote economic growth. It is found that the initial per capita GDP and the degree of trade liberalization constitute a significant and robust combination threshold relationship, which avoids the shortcomings of the traditional single threshold model and accurately describes the current situation of capital account opening in various countries. Then the international experience is applied to the analysis of China, and the shortcoming of single variable threshold model is confirmed. The conclusions are as follows: 1)according to the calculation of the combination threshold, China as a whole does not have the conditions for the full opening of capital account; 2)in view of regions, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reached the conditions for the capital account opening, Tianjin is uncertain, and other regions have not yet met the conditions. This paper gives a more reasonable criterion of capital account opening,and helps design China’s partial opening strategy.

Key words: Capital Account Opening, Economic Growth, Combination Threshold, Partial Opening